Thursday, September 19, 2013

Take a bow, Ben.

Mr.Bernanke, having shown real commitment to the unemployment rate and keeping the bond buying program intact, having helped the runaway deficits with record low interest rates, having stopped a huge recession is ready to move on.

Take a bow, Ben.

Despite the tough years, perhaps Mr. Bernanke will be remembered fondly and well. Lacking the panache of Greenspan, or the flamboyance of the dragon slayers before him, Ben still spoke softly, but clearly. Ben will be remembered in the years to come as Helicopter Ben. And true to form, he kept the chopper still in the air, even as he got ready to parachute out and take the long walk to his next avatar.

It could have been better, it could have been worse, but it is where it is. His successor will have to contend with deficit, as well as the growing entitlements and wonder if the ghosts of Fed before, leave him little room, but to tighten. Yet Ben leaves the US better than what he inherited. For the next
Fed Chairman, there will time to get the hang of the job. We all hope the next Chairman is as tough
and measured as this one.
 

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Ben gets real on the Unemployment Rate

As he matures as the chief central banker of the world, Ben continues to find his
footing. By getting real on the real unemployment rate, Ben is starting
to make a point, that Europe and the UK are on the wrong foot with
Austerity - that China, Brazil and India are seriously slowing and the
world economy while held up by a new set of growth opportunities in
Latin America, the ASEAN excluding China, Turkey and portion of
Africa can still march along. And with the headwinds coming at us,
he is starting to react ahead of the problem and not after the fact.
With the Obama administration mired battle with the Eurofile economists in
the Congress, slowdown can be the operational fiscal word. The
central is the last beacon of hope and Ben got it right today after weeks
of missing the point. He boldly went back to accommodation.
I will not be surprised if the emerging markets also stabilize and
even Europe gains a few sympathy points from this move. The only
bullets left today are with the Fed, so he has to shoot a round.
The current world economy needs a few more vitamin shots - more
renewable energy (which could come from a renewed effort from
both President Obama and the energy hungry economies like China
and India and ASEAN countries), more conventional energy also,
more jobs that are based on services like health care and education,
expansion of credit for IT infrastructure to countries in Africa.

Here is a bold plan - a farm bill that enables exports of US farm
output to various nations across the world. The US has lost
its previous leadership in numerous agricultural commodities.
The Garlic capital of the world is no longer Gilroy. US cotton and
wheat, once the growth story of the world, is now a distant memory.
The US needs to reinvest in new crop technologies and genetic
engineering. While Norman Borlaug might have passed on, new
pest resistant crops built in the US can serve the world with new
sources of both food and energy.
Water technologies - while the US is well endowed with quality
water resources, it is also a very prudent user of its own water
resources. By helping other countries manage their water, the US
could help bring about stronger economies. Iraq and Afghanistan
for instance could greatly benefit from US water technologies.
As important is it for India and Africa and even China.

Investments in new parts of the world through an infrastructure bank,
that helps create jobs here, can also be part of the Feds strategy, - in
cooperation with the Obama White House. The Fed works with many
US banks that operate across the world. These banks have dollars to lend
and a premium rate which they don't get in the United states. In fact,
investable opportunities are fewer here. An infrastructure bank that can
lend to different parts of the world can be boon to US technology companies.
The Fed can place some restriction with a statement that to borrow from the
infrastructure bank, sovereigns and other organizations must use American
made products that generate American jobs.

The world's infrastructure when better will also serve America well. It will
build recognition for the American role as a bringer of a better to places -
and American values like Human Rights and Democracy will receive a
stronger and more serious welcome abroad. And it also creates jobs here.