Sunday, March 15, 2009

Note to Premier Wen

Dear Premier Wen Jia Bao,

Congratulations on a great year! Every year, the Chinese economy improves and grows stronger, more diverse and creates more jobs for its people and products for the world. It is a great win-win equation. However, this year, I must congratulate you on your prudent investing. By choosing Treasuries, and making safe harbor investments you have the best performing sovereign fund in the world. I look at the plight of pension funds that invested in Mortgage backed securities, in other speculative investments, - I look at investors like Warren Buffett who have had a bad year, or the Saudi Prince Bin Talal and I think that China has invested the wealth of its people prudently.

Going forward too, US Treasuries are a sound investment up until the rest of the world economy revives. The US dollar has done well as a safe haven currency. When growth in the world economy returns to normal and China, India, Russia, Brazil and the rest of the emerging world start to grow again, it might be a good idea for China to reinvest in a broad basket of
currencies and slowly readjust the yuan to a peg to a basket of currencies.

Chinese companies have gained from the ability to raise capital in the world markets as have investors from the ability to invest in Chinese companies. Trade has provided a great boom to
China. China will soon gain a seat at the G-8 table.

While there are downsides to stimulus, it seems warranted in the present circumstance. Reviving the American consumer is likely to be a stimulus for China's rapid industrialization
and export driven growth as well. Additionally, revival will offer an opportunity for all countries
to invest in R&D in areas like Energy and Health. And the continued expansion of the Internet.

While there is still substantial imbalance in the world economy, it is hoped that in about 20 years, it would have corrected. There is hope that a world economy that has fewer poor and a
much larger middle class emerges worldwide.

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